Current threat level | National Coordinator for Counterterrorism

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Current threat level for the Netherlands

At present, the chance that the Netherlands will be confronted with a terrorist attack is slight, though by no means non-existent. The latest National Terrorist Threat Assessment (DTN) put the threat level at limited, the second lowest of the four possible levels: minimal, limited, substantial and critical.

Why limited?

The threat level for the Netherlands consequently remains ‘limited’. This means that the risk of a terrorist attack is currently low, but that it cannot be eliminated altogether. The limited threat is posed in particular by the manifestation of international jihadism. It is a cause for concern that young persons in Western countries travel to jihadist areas of conflict to train there or to take part in the struggle. They can pose a threat when they return. The attacks in Southern France at the end of March 2012 against soldiers and a Jewish school demonstrate this.

The strength of the core of al-Qaeda has been mitigated since the death of several of its leaders. The various regional organisations affiliated with the core of al-Qaeda seem currently primarily focused on both the armed and political struggle in parts of Africa and Asia, but the outcome of this struggle is still extremely uncertain. It is possible that, in some countries, jihadists will take advantage of the political and military developments. In time, this may pose a higher threat to Western countries. As evidenced by an additional number of arrests in Europe and North America, the jihadist ideology has proved to be still able to inspire individuals and groups to take action in and against Western countries.

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The composition of the four threat levels

The nature and seriousness of the terrorist threat are determined by many factors. In the Netherlands, we have four levels of ascending threat: minimal, limited, substantial and critical. The following table lists a number of factors that are used to determine the threat level. It is important to emphasise that the list is not exhaustive. It serves merely as an illustration. Each threat level should in fact be regarded as a threat range without clear boundaries. This means that variations can occur in the nature, size and background of the threat without prompting a change in the general threat level. Factors may change, but the overall assessment remains roughly the same.

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Level

Some relevant criteria

Minimal
  • National and international terrorist networks are barely present.
  • It is unlikely that attacks are being planned.
  • This threat level is sustained by the risks associated with maintaining an open and modern society.                   
Limited
  • There are no new trends or phenomena that constitute a threat.
  • Activities by terrorist networks have been hindered. 
  • The Netherlandsis seldom or never mentioned in statements issued by terrorist networks that pose a serious threat.                      
Substantial
  • New trends or phenomena that constitute a threat are discovered.
  • There is a realistic possibility that an attack will occur in the Netherlands.
  • Attacks are occurring in other countries that are comparable to the Netherlands.
  • Radicalisation and recruitment are taking place on a significant scale.
  • The Netherlandsis frequently mentioned in statements issued by terrorist networks that pose a serious threat.                     
Critical
  • There are strong indications that an attack will occur in the Netherlands.
  • An attack has taken place in the Netherlandsand there is a strong possibility of follow-up attacks.
  • The Netherlandsis frequently mentioned in statements issued by terrorist networks. These statements, which seriously threaten specific targets, should be taken very seriously.                    


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