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At present, the chance that the Netherlands will be confronted with a terrorist attack is slight, though by no means non-existent. The latest National Terrorist Threat Assessment (DTN) put the threat level at limited, the second lowest of the four possible levels: minimal, limited, substantial and critical.
The threat level for the Netherlands consequently remains ‘limited’. This means that the risk of a terrorist attack is currently low, but that it cannot be eliminated altogether. The limited threat is posed in particular by the manifestation of international jihadism. It is a cause for concern that young persons in Western countries travel to jihadist areas of conflict to train there or to take part in the struggle. They can pose a threat when they return. The attacks in Southern France at the end of March 2012 against soldiers and a Jewish school demonstrate this.
The strength of the core of al-Qaeda has been mitigated since the death of several of its leaders. The various regional organisations affiliated with the core of al-Qaeda seem currently primarily focused on both the armed and political struggle in parts of Africa and Asia, but the outcome of this struggle is still extremely uncertain. It is possible that, in some countries, jihadists will take advantage of the political and military developments. In time, this may pose a higher threat to Western countries. As evidenced by an additional number of arrests in Europe and North America, the jihadist ideology has proved to be still able to inspire individuals and groups to take action in and against Western countries.
The nature and seriousness of the terrorist threat are determined by many factors. In the Netherlands, we have four levels of ascending threat: minimal, limited, substantial and critical. The following table lists a number of factors that are used to determine the threat level. It is important to emphasise that the list is not exhaustive. It serves merely as an illustration. Each threat level should in fact be regarded as a threat range without clear boundaries. This means that variations can occur in the nature, size and background of the threat without prompting a change in the general threat level. Factors may change, but the overall assessment remains roughly the same.
| Level | Some relevant criteria |
| Minimal |
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| Limited |
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| Substantial |
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| Critical |
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