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Current threat level for the Netherlands

At present, the chance that the Netherlands will be confronted with a terrorist attack is slight, though by no means non-existent. The latest National Terrorist Threat Assessment (DTN) put the threat level at limited, the second lowest of the four possible levels: minimal, limited, substantial and critical.

Why limited?

The threat level for the Netherlands remains at the level of limited. This means that the chance of an attack against the Netherlands is small, but that it certainly cannot be entirely excluded. The national and international trends that have been recognised in the recent period remain in line with the conclusions in the previous threat assessment. The profile of the Netherlands continues to fit the image of enemy of international jihad. The fact that in view of this Dutch interests abroad are more vulnerable to the risk terrorist attacks also remains unchanged. This includes Dutch interests during the World Cup in South Africa. In addition, the threat against the Netherlands itself still mainly comes from transnational networks that could mainly manifest themselves via Dutch or European jihadists returning from training camps or areas of conflict. Because of these reasons the threat level against the Netherlands remains limited.

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The composition of the four threat levels

The nature and seriousness of the terrorist threat are determined by many factors. In the Netherlands, we have four levels of ascending threat: minimal, limited, substantial and critical. The following table lists a number of factors that are used to determine the threat level. It is important to emphasise that the list is not exhaustive. It serves merely as an illustration. Each threat level should in fact be regarded as a threat range without clear boundaries. This means that variations can occur in the nature, size and background of the threat without prompting a change in the general threat level. Factors may change, but the overall assessment remains roughly the same.

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Level

Some relevant criteria

Minimal
  • National and international terrorist networks are barely present.
  • It is unlikely that attacks are being planned.
  • This threat level is sustained by the risks associated with maintaining an open and modern society.                   
Limited
  • There are no new trends or phenomena that constitute a threat.
  • Activities by terrorist networks have been hindered. 
  • The Netherlandsis seldom or never mentioned in statements issued by terrorist networks that pose a serious threat.                      
Substantial
  • New trends or phenomena that constitute a threat are discovered.
  • There is a realistic possibility that an attack will occur in the Netherlands.
  • Attacks are occurring in other countries that are comparable to the Netherlands.
  • Radicalisation and recruitment are taking place on a significant scale.
  • The Netherlandsis frequently mentioned in statements issued by terrorist networks that pose a serious threat.                     
Critical
  • There are strong indications that an attack will occur in the Netherlands.
  • An attack has taken place in the Netherlandsand there is a strong possibility of follow-up attacks.
  • The Netherlandsis frequently mentioned in statements issued by terrorist networks. These statements, which seriously threaten specific targets, should be taken very seriously.                    


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