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At present, the chance that the Netherlands will be confronted with a terrorist attack is slight, though by no means non-existent. The latest National Terrorist Threat Assessment (DTN) put the threat level at limited, the second lowest of the four possible levels: minimal, limited, substantial and critical.
The threat level for the Netherlands remains at the level of limited. This means that the chance of an attack against the Netherlands is small, but that it certainly cannot be entirely excluded. The national and international trends that have been recognised in the recent period remain in line with the conclusions in the previous threat assessment. The profile of the Netherlands continues to fit the image of enemy of international jihad. The fact that in view of this Dutch interests abroad are more vulnerable to the risk terrorist attacks also remains unchanged. This includes Dutch interests during the World Cup in South Africa. In addition, the threat against the Netherlands itself still mainly comes from transnational networks that could mainly manifest themselves via Dutch or European jihadists returning from training camps or areas of conflict. Because of these reasons the threat level against the Netherlands remains limited.
The nature and seriousness of the terrorist threat are determined by many factors. In the Netherlands, we have four levels of ascending threat: minimal, limited, substantial and critical. The following table lists a number of factors that are used to determine the threat level. It is important to emphasise that the list is not exhaustive. It serves merely as an illustration. Each threat level should in fact be regarded as a threat range without clear boundaries. This means that variations can occur in the nature, size and background of the threat without prompting a change in the general threat level. Factors may change, but the overall assessment remains roughly the same.
| Level | Some relevant criteria |
| Minimal |
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| Limited |
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| Substantial |
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| Critical |
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